Why It’s so Hard to Beat the President

Trump’s electoral advantage.

It’s real… never mind the national opinion polls that show him hovering above or below the 45 to 50 percent zone.

It’s all got to do with the Electoral College… that democratic institution more and more Democrats want to scrap. They want a country where the biggest few states overpower all the rest… and the voters in those states’ biggest few cities in overpower the ones outside them.

Trump’s advantage, the number crunchers say, is due to his stability and resilience at the state by state level.

The New York Times, whose election-o-meter fried brains and broke hearts in 2016 by moving in a few hours from 99 percent Clinton to 100 percent Trump, has a new report out showing Wisconsin is Trump’s “tipping point” state… the one that, if he wins there, best signals he’s won the country.

Regardless of what happens with the nationwide popular vote.

Which could be a replay of his first victory.


Democrats don’t have much room for maneuver. There’s no section of the country that’s especially ripe for snatching out of Trump’s 2016 column. If they can’t take Wisconsin, the Times report suggests, their next best bet could be Arizona… but as of now, that play looks unlikely.

The prognosticators and forecasters will continue to slice and dice the numbers right up until Election Day, and won’t tire of reminding us it’s anyone’s game.

Maybe so.

But Democrats are learning the hard way two lessons Republicans have internalized since George H.W. Bush blew a 90 percent approval rating and lost out to Bill Clinton (thanks in no small part to H. Ross Perot).

First terms are difficult. But throwing out an incumbent is even harder.

Reagan’s first term was hardly a cakewalk. Full of crisis and internal division, it left the Gipper with much to prove and many enemies.

Clinton’s first term was a joke. Endless personnel changes, a string of abortive initiatives, and a tepid economy led to a wipeout midterm in Congress with little precedent in history.

George W. Bush received awful reviews for his first term, from 9/11 to Iraq to his bumbling demeanor and his glowering Vice President.

Barack Obama spent his first term buying time, flattering his base, and aimlessly steering a shaky foreign policy. He arrogantly blew his first debate.

Yet he, like the three two-termers before him, pulled out a convincing victory, opening a wide lane for a much more ambitious second term.

All things being equal, that’s what Trump is looking at today.

And with more heads exploding by the day, his opposition is set to grow weaker as he grows stronger.

The race is on.